Covid cases expected to touch 50,000 mark in mid-May, predicts IIT-Kanpur professor

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Amid a spike in Covid-19 cases across the country, IIT Kanpur professor Dr Manindra Aggarwal has predicted that Covid cases are expected to reach its peak in the middle of May. The predictions made on the basis of a mathematical model reveal that nearly 50,000 to 60,000 Covid cases are likely to be recorded in May.

However, an accurate prediction will be made after a week when the model will have enough data to calculate. India on Friday recorded 11,109 new cases of Covid-19 infection in the last 24 hours, a sharp jump from yesterday when 7,830 cases were reported, as per the daily health bulletin released by the Union Health Ministry on Friday. The active caseload stood at 49,622, which is 0.11 per cent of the total cases, added the Union Health Ministry.

The IIT-Kanpur professor has cited two reasons for the surge in Covid cases. While the first reason is that the natural immunity to fighting the virus has now reduced in 5 per cent of people, the second reason is the new variant of the Covid which spreads at a fast rate.

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Professor Aggarwal said that in India, above 90% and in Uttar Pradesh, around 95% of people have natural immunity.

“50,000 Covid cases will be recorded in the upcoming months according to the model, which is not a big deal for a country like India whose population is so high,”Dr Manindra Aggarwal said.

“In most cases, the symptoms are mild and people complaining of cough and cold are being treated at home. In such a situation, Covid should be treated like a regular flu and will not be as dangerous as it was in the second wave,” he said.

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