$5 trillion economy by 2025 nearly impossible: Raghuram Rajan

While acknowledging the 7.6% growth in the first half, Rajan highlights lagging private investment and job creation. He emphasizes the need for faster, sustainable growth exceeding the current 6% average.

Key points:

• Growth sources: Government spending and global recovery fueled the recent uptick, but private sectors remain weak.
• Job concerns: Despite strong headline numbers, job creation lags behind, raising concerns about maximizing the demographic dividend.
• $5 trillion goal unlikely: Reaching the ambitious target requires a “miracle” or a significant jump to 12-15% growth, which currently lacks a clear plan.
• Data transparency: Rajan stresses the need for open data and public discourse to inform policy decisions.
• Hindu rate of growth: While cautious about the term’s connotations, Rajan reiterates concerns about India’s slow growth trajectory.
• Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme: Rajan questions the effectiveness of the scheme, drawing parallels to pre-liberalization interventionist policies.

Rajan notes that over the last four years, India’s economy has grown at an average rate of 4% annually, well below its potential growth rate of 6%. He emphasizes the need for faster growth to address the critical issue of insufficient job creation.

Expressing concerns about the feasibility of achieving a $5 trillion economy by 2025, Rajan highlights the need for a substantial annual growth rate of 12-15%, which he considers highly challenging. He calls for informed public discussions and involvement of economists in formulating plans to accelerate India’s economic growth.

Overall, Rajan’s message paints a mixed picture of the Indian economy. While acknowledging recent growth, he calls for a shift towards sustainable, job-creating growth and open policymaking.