India’s Exports Expected to Grow in April–June Quarter of FY2026: Exim Bank Report

India’s merchandise exports are expected to grow in the first quarter of FY2026 (April to June), according to a new forecast by the Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank). The Bank predicts that the country’s total merchandise exports will reach US$ 113.7 billion, showing a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 3.3%.

Strong Growth in Non-Oil Exports

The report highlights stronger performance in non-oil exports. These exports are expected to touch US$ 99.2 billion, marking a YoY growth of 10.9%. Furthermore, exports excluding oil and gems & jewellery are estimated to be around US$ 88.1 billion, with a YoY growth of 7.3%.

Why Are India’s Exports Growing?

This positive export growth may be due to several factors:

• A possible recovery in manufacturing activity across sectors
• Finalisation of export orders from earlier quarters
• Ongoing trade negotiations that are expected to boost international trade
• A supportive policy environment in India that encourages exports

If these trends continue, Exim Bank expects the growth momentum in exports to carry forward into the second quarter (July–September) of FY2026 as well.

However, the bank also warns that this outlook could be affected by global risks, such as:

• Changes in global tariffs and trade policies
• Uncertainty in international trade relations
• Ongoing geo-political tensions and economic fragmentation

About the Export Forecast Model

India Exim Bank releases export forecasts every quarter. These are published in the first half of May, August, November, and February. The forecasts are based on the Export Leading Index (ELI), a research model developed in-house by the Bank.

This model takes into account various domestic and global factors that influence India’s exports. It is used to predict the growth of total merchandise exports and non-oil exports on a quarterly basis.

The model and its results are reviewed and validated by a technical committee of experts, including:

• Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, RBI
• Prof. Saikat Sinha Roy, Jadavpur University
• Prof. N.R. Bhanumurthy, Madras School of Economics
• Prof. C. Veeramani, Centre for Development Studies

The next forecast report for July–September 2025 (Q2 of FY2026) will be released in early August 2025.