Minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025

The Federal Reserve has released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that was held on June 17–18, 2025. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee are generally published three weeks after the day of the policy decision.

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, June 17, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, June 18, 2025, at 9:00 a.m.

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Inflation and Labor Market Update – May Report

In May, the overall consumer price inflation — measured by the 12-month change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — was estimated at 2.3%. This estimate is based on data from both consumer and producer price indexes.

When looking at core PCE inflation, which excludes energy and many food prices, the figure was slightly higher at 2.6%. Importantly, both overall and core inflation have come down compared to earlier this year, showing signs of cooling price pressures.

Surveys tracking public expectations of inflation in the short term remained relatively high, although the results varied. Some of these measures even showed a slight decline in May and June. On the other hand, long-term inflation expectations — looking several years ahead — stayed mostly stable.

Labor Market Conditions Remain Strong

The job market continued to show solid performance in May:

• The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, unchanged for the third month in a row.
• The labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio fell slightly but remained close to where they’ve been since the start of the year.
• Nonfarm payroll employment — a key measure of job creation — rose at a strong pace, slightly above the average growth of the past four months.
• The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers stayed at 1.0, indicating one job opening per unemployed person.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for all workers increased by 3.9% over the past 12 months, which is slightly lower than the wage growth seen a year ago.

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